How a weighted pipeline is calculated
Weighted value = deal value × probability of winning
Add the weighted value of every open deal and you have the weighted pipeline, the simplest forecast most sales teams use. A $10,000 deal at the proposal stage with a 50% win rate counts as $5,000; the same deal in qualification at 10% counts as $1,000.
Worked example
A team has 20 deals in qualification (average $5,000, 10% win rate), 12 in discovery ($6,000, 25%), 6 at proposal ($7,500, 50%) and 3 in negotiation ($8,000, 75%).
- Total pipeline at full value: $241,000.
- Weighted forecast: $10,000 + $18,000 + $22,500 + $18,000 = $68,500.
- Against a $90,000 target the team is $21,500 short. Each new qualification deal adds $5,000 × 10% = $500 of weighted value, so closing the gap from the top would take about 43 new deals.
That last number is usually the useful one: it shows whether the quarter will be won by finding more deals or by moving the ones you have.
Where the win rates come from
The best probabilities are your own: of the deals that reached each stage in the past, what share did you win? Generic figures, such as 10% for qualification and 75% for negotiation, are a reasonable start, but revisit them after a quarter of real data. A forecast built on optimistic stage rates is the most common reason a team misses its number.
Pipeline coverage
Coverage = total open pipeline ÷ target
Many teams aim for about 3× coverage. The right ratio for you is roughly one divided by your overall win rate: at a 25% win rate you need about 4× the target in the pipeline. In the example the coverage is 2.7×.
Frequently asked questions
What is a weighted pipeline?
A weighted pipeline is the total value of your open deals, with each deal multiplied by its probability of closing. It turns a list of opportunities into a single forecast number.
What is a good pipeline coverage ratio?
About 3× the target is a common rule of thumb. More precisely, aim for one divided by your win rate: a team that wins one deal in four needs roughly 4× coverage.
How accurate is a weighted pipeline forecast?
It is reliable on average across many deals and unreliable for any single deal, which either closes in full or not at all. With only a handful of large deals, review each one individually as well.
Should closed-won deals be included?
No. Count open deals only, and add revenue you have already won in the period separately when comparing with the target.
How can I make the forecast more accurate?
Use win rates measured from your own history, keep close dates current, and take stalled deals out or lower their odds. Arkenso Sales CRM measures stage win rates from your deal history and flags deals that have stalled.
Last reviewed 2026-10-17.